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☆ Wall St Week Ahead Bargain or trap? US bank stock outlook hinges on Fed's path
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Bank stocks are at an all-time low compared with the S&P 500 based on relative prices, according to data from BofA Global Research. One key factor for bank stocks is whether the Federal Reserve is close to wrapping up a monetary tightening cycle that has brought the highest U.S. interest rates in decades. Yet signs the Fed may keep rates around current levels through most of next year have weighed on bank stocks. This month, analysts at BofA Global Research said investors should “selectively” add exposure to bank stocks in anticipation of an interest rate peak. Overall, about 61% of all outstanding mortgages have an interest rate below 4%, according to the Apollo Group, leaving consumers little incentive to refinance or move.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Quincy Krosby, Bill Gross, Neville Javeri, Goldman Sachs, Jeff Muhlenkamp, David Randall, Bansari Mayur, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank, BofA Global Research, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fund, Allspring Global Investments, Fifth Third Bancorp, Investors, Apollo Group, financials, Fed, Muhlenkamp & Company, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Silicon

☆ Apollo may get noodle LBO thrown back in its face
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The private equity firm has offered to buy Wagamama owner Restaurant Group (RTN.L) for 701 million pounds including debt. Restaurant Group is an obvious takeover target. And Restaurant Group itself reckons it can crank up its EBITDA margin by as much as 3.5 percentage points by 2026. Apollo could comfortably double its money, assuming it used debt of around 300 million pounds to buy the business, or 3 times 2024 EBITDA. The deal is being undertaken by a special purpose vehicle indirectly owned by Apollo Funds, managed by affiliates of Apollo Global Management.

Persons: Andy Hornby, Frankie, Jefferies, John Wood, Neil Unmack, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Restaurant, Irenic Capital, Oasis Management, Apollo Group, Restaurant Group, Apollo Funds, Apollo Global Management, Thomson Locations: Britain

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The U.S. consumer is on thin ice coming into the final stretch of 2023," said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending. Overall consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in August, while the savings rate fell to its lowest since November 2022, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Betting against the consumer spending has so far been a losing wager. (This story has been corrected to say BNY Mellon Investment Management, not BNY Mellon, in paragraph 10)Reporting by David Randall; editing by Megan Davies and Andy SullivanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Nordstrom, Macy's, Emily Roland, Jake Jolly, Gregory Daco, Young, Jason Draho, Sandy Villere, Mellon, David Randall, Megan Davies, Andy Sullivan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apollo Group . Department, John Hancock Investment Management, of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Treasury, Ernst, Atlanta Fed's, UBS Global Wealth Management, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Villere, Thomson Locations: New York City, Russia, Ukraine, New York, U.S

☆ Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates, says RE/MAX chairman
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

After all, he recalls the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation briefly spiked mortgage rates above 18%. “Everyone has been spoiled by the past 15 years of low interest rates,” Liniger, now the chairman of RE/MAX, told CNN. Mortgage rates climbed to 6.96% during the week ending July 13, up from 6.81% the week before, Freddie Mac said Thursday. “We’re just going to have to learn to live with 6.5% or 7% mortgage rates for six to 18 months,” said Liniger. ‘This is the top’Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, is more optimistic about the direction of mortgage rates.

Persons: Dave Liniger, ” Liniger, Freddie Mac, That’s, Liniger, “ We’re, ”, Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, ” Torsten Slok, it’s, Yun, there’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Apollo Group Locations: New York, America

☆ Meet 9 top media bankers transforming the M&A landscape and driving deals for Warner Bros. Discovery, Legendary, Amazon, and more
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Claire Atkinson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

2022 kicked off with some huge transactions, from AT&T's WarnerMedia spin-off to private equity scooping up content players. Brad Pitt's production company, Plan B, and Diamond Sports Group both recently tapped big banks to explore their options. Not surprisingly, WarnerMedia was at the heart of the richest transaction fee waterfall for big banks in 2022. Moelis and LionTree were just tapped to help figure out what's next for Sinclair's Regional Sports Networks, Diamond Sports Group, while Brad Pitt's production company, Plan B, also hired Moelis to shop the production company, according to Variety. There's lots of dry powder still in private equity, Navid Mahmoodzadegan, co-founder and co-president at investment bank Moelis, told Insider.

☆ Meet 9 top media bankers transforming the M&A landscape as streaming video reshapes entertainment
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Claire Atkinson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

2022 kicked off with some huge transactions, from AT&T's WarnerMedia spin-off to private equity scooping up content players. Company valuations are set to fall back to earth in 2023, and private equity and strategics are lying in wait. Not surprisingly, WarnerMedia was at the heart of the richest transaction fee waterfall for big banks in 2022. Joshua Grode's Legendary Entertainment, backed by Dalian Wanda and now Apollo Group, which took a stake in the studio in January. There's lots of dry powder still in private equity, Navid Mahmoodzadegan, co-founder and co-president at investment bank Moelis, told Insider.

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